JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT 2782-4586 2949-1851 111239 10.26118/2782-4586.2025.13.36.036 Научные статьи SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES Научные статьи The Impact of Labor Migration on Forestry Development: Economic Aspects and Perspectives Влияние миграции рабочей силы на развитие лесного хозяйства: экономические аспекты и перспективы Безпалько Анна Романовна Bezpal'ko Anna Romanovna

кандидат экономических наук;

candidate of economic sciences;

 Гайсина Альфия Рафаилевна Gaysina Al'fiya Rafailevna Тошпулотов Алишер Аминович Toshpulotov Alisher Aminovich Санкт-Петербургский государственный лесотехнический университет им. С. М. Кирова St. Petersburg State Forest Technical University Астраханский государственный университет Astrakhan State University Европейский Международный Университет – Париж Париж Франция European International University – Paris Paris France 06 01 2026 06 01 2026 11 281 296 28 12 2025 https://jomeam.ru/en/nauka/article/111239/view

Статья посвящена теоретическому анализу влияния миграции рабочей силы на экономическое развитие лесного хозяйства. На основе систематизации классических и современных теорий миграции разработана концептуальная модель, описывающая прямые и косвенные эффекты миграции на отрасль через изменение количественных и качественных характеристик трудовых ресурсов. Установлено, что миграция создаёт фундаментальное противоречие между краткосрочной экономической выгодой от снижения издержек и долгосрочными рисками технологической стагнации. Выявлены парадоксы дешёвого труда (доступность мигрантов снижает стимулы к модернизации) и замещения (использование труда мигрантов усугубляет дефицит кадров через снижение привлекательности отрасли). Предложена типология миграционного влияния с учётом опосредующих факторов на макро-, мезо- и микроуровнях. Разработаны концептуальные сценарии развития лесного хозяйства в условиях различных миграционных режимов: депопуляции, миграционного замещения, технологической трансформации и устойчивого развития. Результаты формируют методологическую основу для междисциплинарного анализа миграции в природоресурсных отраслях.

The article presents a theoretical analysis of labor migration impact on forestry economic development. Based on the systematization of classical and contemporary migration theories, a conceptual model has been developed that describes direct and indirect effects of migration on the industry through changes in quantitative and qualitative characteristics of labor resources. It has been established that migration creates a fundamental contradiction between short-term economic benefits from cost reduction and long-term risks of technological stagnation. The paradoxes of cheap labor (availability of migrants reduces incentives for modernization) and substitution (use of migrant labor exacerbates labor shortages by reducing the industry's attractiveness) have been identified. A typology of migration influence is proposed, considering mediating factors at macro-, meso-, and micro-levels. Conceptual scenarios for forestry development under various migration regimes have been developed: depopulation, migration substitution, technological transformation, and sustainable development. The findings provide a methodological foundation for interdisciplinary analysis of migration in natural resource industries.

 трудовая миграция лесное хозяйство экономическое развитие теория миграции концептуальная модель человеческий капитал отраслевая экономика природоресурсные отрасли labor migration forestry economic development migration theory conceptual model human capital sectoral economics natural resource industries

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