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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="print">2782-4586</issn>
   <issn publication-format="online">2949-1851</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">99106</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26118/2782-4586.2025.27.74.013</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Научные статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Научные статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Economic indicators and risk assessment: the role of financial professionals in global financial stability</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Экономические индикаторы и оценка рисков: роль финансовых специалистов в глобальной финансовой стабильности</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Гаджиева</surname>
       <given-names>Светлана Сергеевна</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Gadzhieva</surname>
       <given-names>Svetlana Sergeevna</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Уральский государственный экономический университет</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Ural State University of Economics </institution>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Оксфордский университет Брукса</institution>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Oxford Brookes University</institution>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <issue>3</issue>
   <fpage>65</fpage>
   <lpage>71</lpage>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://jomeam.ru/en/nauka/article/99106/view">https://jomeam.ru/en/nauka/article/99106/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>С момента пандемии COVID-19 глобальный макроэкономический ландшафт характеризовал высокий уровень неопределенности. Целью работы является изучение роли финансовой оценки рисков в обеспечении макроэкономической стабильности рынков. В ходе исследования была проанализирована макроэкономическая неопределенность, которая может повлиять на макрофинансовую стабильность. Отмечено, что финансовые переменные могут не полностью охватывать макроэкономическую неопределенность, поэтому для оценки макрофинансовой стабильности финансистам необходимо рассматривать их в рамках оценки системного риска и прогнозирования хвостовых рисков для рынков и экономической активности. Для оценки связи макроэкономической неопределенности с рисками ухудшения будущего объема производства финансисты могут использовать расширенную модель GaR, привлекая методы искусственного интеллекта. В заключении отмечено, что высокая неопределенность в отношении экономических основ и политики увеличивает риски снижения будущего реального роста ВВП, доходности рынка акций и облигаций и банковского кредитования, поэтому финансистам важно проводить грамотную оценку рисков, в том числе используя модели машинного обучения, которые позволяют улучшить прогнозную способность системных фреймворков оценки риска.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the global macroeconomic landscape has been characterized by a high level of uncertainty. The purpose of the work is to study the role of accounting risk assessment in ensuring the macroeconomic stability of markets. To achieve this goal, structural, functional and theoretical research methods were used: analysis, generalization and synthesis of literature in the field of accounting and finance. The study analyzed the macroeconomic uncertainty that may affect macro-financial stability. It is noted that financial variables may not fully cover macroeconomic uncertainty, therefore, in order to assess macrofinancial stability, accountants need to consider them as part of a systemic risk assessment and tail risk forecasting for markets and economic activity. To assess the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the risks of deterioration in future production, accountants can use the extended GaR model using artificial intelligence methods. In conclusion, it is noted that high uncertainty regarding economic fundamentals and policies increases the risks of reducing future real GDP growth, stock and bond market returns, and bank lending, so it is important for accountants to conduct a competent risk assessment, including using machine learning models that improve the predictive ability of risk assessment frameworks.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>макроэкономическая неопределенность</kwd>
    <kwd>макроэкономическая стабильность рынков</kwd>
    <kwd>экономические индикаторы</kwd>
    <kwd>оценка рисков</kwd>
    <kwd>меры макроэкономической и финансовой неопределенности</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>macroeconomic uncertainty</kwd>
    <kwd>macroeconomic stability of markets</kwd>
    <kwd>economic indicators</kwd>
    <kwd>risk assessment</kwd>
    <kwd>measures of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
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