<!DOCTYPE article
PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.4 20190208//EN"
       "JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.4" xml:lang="en">
 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="print">2782-4586</issn>
   <issn publication-format="online">2949-1851</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">104559</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26118/2782-4586.2025.76.64.013</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Научные статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Научные статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Comparison of the results of applying the simplified discounted cash flow model to the stock markets of Russia and Indonesia</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Сравнение результатов применения упрощенной модели дисконтированных денежных потоков к фондовому рынку России и Индонезии</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Лихенко</surname>
       <given-names>Иван Иванович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Lihenko</surname>
       <given-names>Ivan Ivanovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Новосибирский государственный университет экономики и управления</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Novosibirsk State University of Economy and Management</institution>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-10-11T12:47:06+03:00">
    <day>11</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-10-11T12:47:06+03:00">
    <day>11</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>7</issue>
   <fpage>116</fpage>
   <lpage>123</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-09-24T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>24</day>
     <month>09</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://jomeam.ru/en/nauka/article/104559/view">https://jomeam.ru/en/nauka/article/104559/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>В работе проведено сравнительное исследование эффективности упрощённой модели дисконтированных денежных потоков (DCF) при оценке стоимости компаний на фондовых рынках России и Индонезии. Особое внимание уделено анализу методов расчёта ставки дисконтирования и темпов роста денежных потоков, а также их влиянию на точность оценок. В исследовании использованы подходы, описанные в зарубежной литературе, в частности, методы, применявшиеся для индонезийского рынка, с последующим сопоставлением результатов для российского рынка. Выявлено, что наилучшие результаты по точности оценки достигаются при использовании корректировок темпов роста и модели CAPM с использованием премии за риск США, скорректированной для применения на рынке России. В то же время применение фиксированных ставок или усреднённых темпов роста приводит к значительному снижению точности и устойчивости моделей. Полученные выводы подтверждают релевантность DCF-подхода при условии адаптации его параметров к особенностям развивающихся рынков и могут быть использованы при построении инвестиционных стратегий и дальнейших академических исследованиях.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>A comparative study was conducted on the effectiveness of a simplified Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for valuing companies in the stock markets of Russia and Indonesia. Special attention was given to analyzing the methods for calculating the discount rate and cash flow growth rates, as well as their impact on valuation accuracy. The study utilized approaches described in international literature, particularly those applied to the Indonesian market, with subsequent comparison of results for the Russian market. It was found that the highest valuation accuracy is achieved when adjusting growth rates and applying the CAPM model with a U.S. risk premium adjusted for use in the Russian market. At the same time, the use of fixed rates or averaged growth rates leads to a significant decrease in the accuracy and stability of the models. The findings confirm the relevance of the DCF approach, provided its parameters are adapted to the specifics of emerging markets, and may be used in developing investment strategies and further academic research.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>дисконтированные денежные потоки (DCF)</kwd>
    <kwd>ставка дисконтирования</kwd>
    <kwd>оценка стоимости компании</kwd>
    <kwd>фондовый рынок России</kwd>
    <kwd>модель CAPM</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>discounted cash flow (DCF)</kwd>
    <kwd>discount rate</kwd>
    <kwd>company valuation</kwd>
    <kwd>Russian stock market</kwd>
    <kwd>CAPM model</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p></p>
 </body>
 <back>
  <ref-list>
   <ref id="B1">
    <label>1.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Damodaran A. Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset. – John Wiley &amp; Sons, 2012.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Damodaran A. Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset. – John Wiley &amp; Sons, 2012.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B2">
    <label>2.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Fama E. F., French K. R. The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence //Journal of economic perspectives. – 2004. – Т. 18. – №. 3. – С. 25-46.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Fama E. F., French K. R. The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence //Journal of economic perspectives. – 2004. – T. 18. – №. 3. – S. 25-46.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B3">
    <label>3.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hyndman R. J., Koehler A. B. Another look at measures of forecast accuracy //International journal of forecasting. – 2006. – Т. 22. – №. 4. – С. 679-688.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hyndman R. J., Koehler A. B. Another look at measures of forecast accuracy //International journal of forecasting. – 2006. – T. 22. – №. 4. – S. 679-688.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B4">
    <label>4.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kvålseth T. O. Cautionary note about R 2 //The American Statistician. – 1985. – Т. 39. – №. 4. – С. 279-285.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kvålseth T. O. Cautionary note about R 2 //The American Statistician. – 1985. – T. 39. – №. 4. – S. 279-285.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B5">
    <label>5.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Roll R. A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory //Journal of financial economics. – 1977. – Т. 4. – №. 2. – С. 129-176.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Roll R. A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory //Journal of financial economics. – 1977. – T. 4. – №. 2. – S. 129-176.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B6">
    <label>6.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Sutjipto E., Setiawan W., Ghozali I. Determination of intrinsic value: Dividend discount model and discounted cash flow methods in Indonesia Stock Exchange //Eddy Sutjipto, Wawan Setiawan and Imam Ghozali, Determination of Intrinsic Value: Dividend Discount Model and Discounted Cash Flow Methods in Indonesia Stock Exchange, International Journal of Management. – 2020. – Т. 11. – №. 11.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sutjipto E., Setiawan W., Ghozali I. Determination of intrinsic value: Dividend discount model and discounted cash flow methods in Indonesia Stock Exchange //Eddy Sutjipto, Wawan Setiawan and Imam Ghozali, Determination of Intrinsic Value: Dividend Discount Model and Discounted Cash Flow Methods in Indonesia Stock Exchange, International Journal of Management. – 2020. – T. 11. – №. 11.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
  </ref-list>
 </back>
</article>
