graduate student from 01.01.2021 to 01.01.2025
Department for the Jewish Autonomous Region of the Far Eastern Main Directorate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
employee
Russian Federation
employee
Russian Federation
The article, using the example of the Jewish Autonomous Region (JAR), proposes a practical mechanism for integrating modern econometric forecasting models — the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for inflation and the estimation of the output gap based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter — into the region's indicative planning system. A comparative analysis of the accuracy of forecasts obtained using econometric models and official planning indicators is conducted. It is shown that the use of the VAR model allows for a 4-fold reduction in the error of forecasting the consumer price index compared to traditional methods. Based on the assessment of the deviation of actual production volume from its potential level (+2.3% in 2023), recommendations have been formulated to adjust the region's investment and budgetary policies in order to contain inflationary risks and reduce current expenditures. The developed methodology enhances the adaptability and effectiveness of indicative planning, facilitating the transition from reactive to proactive management. The recommendations formulated in the article are of an exclusively research nature and do not imply any intervention by the authors into the decision-making process of regional authorities. The views expressed herein are solely those of the authors. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. Any errors in this document are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without the authors’ consent.
indicative planning, econometric forecasting, vector autoregressive (VAR) model, output gap, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Jewish Autonomous Region, regional economic policy, forecast accuracy
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