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This study is a comprehensive systematic analysis of the prospects for the development of the global nickel mining industry in the context of the structural transformation of the global economy. The paper provides a detailed assessment of the impact of geo-economic factors on the redistribution of rents in the nickel value chain, with an emphasis on strengthening neocolonial exploitation mechanisms. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the strategies of the semi-peripheral countries (Indonesia, Russia) in the context of increasing technological divergence and stricter environmental standards. The study identified and quantified the degree of dependence of commodity-based economies on the political and economic influence of metropolitan countries. Based on the data obtained, a multifactorial forecasting model has been developed that demonstrates three scenario trajectories for the development of the industry, taking into account current structural constraints and potential growth points. In the final part, a systematic forecast is presented, indicating a high probability of preserving the peripheral status of commodity economies in the face of increasing technological protectionism and fragmentation of global markets.
nickel mining industry, neocolonialism, value chain, technological divergence, semi-peripheral countries, geo-economics, resource nationalism, ESG standards, rental extraction, structural dependence
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