Modern challenges and new indicators for assessing the economic security of the Russian Federation under sanctions pressure
Abstract and keywords
Abstract:
The relevance of the study is due to the sharp increase in sanctions pressure on Russia from the United States, the European Union and their allies after February 2022, which required a rethink and modernization of the system of economic security indicators. The strategy of economic Security of the Russian Federation until 2030 provides for 40 indicators, but by the beginning of 2022, target and critical values had been developed for only 17 of them, and for the rest there were not even methodological measurement bases. In the context of a mobilised economy and technological dependence on external suppliers, there is an urgent need to adapt the economic security monitoring system to new realities, including import substitution, technological sovereignty and the stability of the financial system. The purpose of the study is to update and expand the composition of indicators for assessing the economic security of the Russian Federation, taking into account data for 2021-2024, as well as to propose new indicators reflecting the specifics of sanctions risks and the internal stability of the Russian economy. The research uses methods of comparative analysis, statistical generalization, critical evaluation of official data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development, as well as an expert review of scientific literature on economic security issues. The results of the study include: (1) identification of outdated and insufficient indicators in the current monitoring system; (2) updating the actual values of key indicators for 2021-2024.; (3) the proposal of new key indicators – "the level of import substitution", "technological sovereignty", "debt sustainability of the non-primary sector", "nationalized sector of the economy", etc.; (4) justification of the need for interdepartmental coordination in setting target and critical thresholds. In conclusion, it is emphasized that without a systematic update of the indicator base, it is impossible to adequately assess and manage economic risks in a hybrid war. It is recommended to introduce new indicators into monitoring practice, as well as to legislate the responsibility of federal authorities for their timely updating.

Keywords:
economic security, sanctions, import substitution, technological sovereignty, targets, critical thresholds, nationalization, Rosstat
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References

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