student
student
student
UDC 339.137
The article examines methodological approaches to adapting pricing mechanisms in long-term gas contracts under conditions of geopolitical tension. The relevance of the study is driven by the breakdown of the traditional correlation between oil and natural gas prices caused by geopolitical shocks (sanctions, changes in supply routes, logistical risks), which reduces the effectiveness of oil price indexation (OPI). The causes of the asymmetric response of oil and gas markets to geopolitical events are identified, and an author's classification of factors driving the divergence of price indicators (Brent, TTF, JKM) is proposed. A hybrid pricing model is developed, integrating gas hub indices and an automatic price review mechanism triggered when the global Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index exceeds a threshold. Directions for enhancing the adaptability of contractual structures are substantiated, including diversification of settlement currencies (yuan, rupee) and consideration of freight rates. A comparative assessment confirms a reduction in price distortions and increased stability of contractual relations.
long-term gas contracts, oil price indexation (OPI), geopolitical risks (GPR), hybrid pricing, Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Japan Korea Marker (JKM), oil and gas market asymmetry, adaptation of contractual mechanisms
1. Talus K. Winds of Change: Long-Term Gas Contracts and Changing Energy Paradigms in the European Union / K. Talus // Palgrave Macmillan UK. – 2012. – P. 227-242.
2. Chto takoe dogovor take or pay («beri ili plati»)? [Elektronnyy resurs] / Argumenty i fakty. – 2020. – 21 aprelya. Rezhim dostupa: https://aif.ru/money/economy/chto_takoe_dogovor_take_or_pay_beri_ili_plati (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
3. The peculiarities of price formation in the international trade in natural gas [Elektronnyy resurs] // Academia.edu. – 2013. Rezhim dostupa: https://ideas.repec.org/a/eip/journl/y2014i1p53-66.html (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
4. It will take time before the gas prices impact the Yamal contract (ANALYSIS) [Elektronnyy resurs] // BiznesAlert EN. – 13 September 2020. Rezhim dostupa: https://biznesalert.com/gas-prices-poland-impacts-yamal-contract-analysis/ (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
5. Komarovskaya N.V. Sposoby izmereniya ekonomicheskoy neopredelennosti [Elektronnyy resurs] // CyberLeninka: [sayt]. Rezhim dostupa: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sposoby-izmereniya-ekonomicheskoy-neopredelennosti (data obrascheniya: 30.04.2026).
6. Ormuzskiy proliv propustil 5 sudov za 24 chasa vmesto dovoennyh 140 [Elektronnyy resurs] // Rambler.Finansy: [sayt]. – 26 aprelya 2026. Rezhim dostupa: https://finance.rambler.ru/business/56363078-ormuzskiy-proliv-propustil-5-sudov-za-24-chasa-vmesto-dovoennyh-140/ (data obrascheniya: 30.04.2026).
7. Bloomberg nazval dve prichiny podorozhaniya frahta neftetankerov na 600% [Elektronnyy resurs] // RBK.Radio : [sayt]. – 27 fevralya 2026. – URL: https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/69a14f089a7947bfd04b07e0 (data obrascheniya: 30.04.2026).
8. TradingView Inc. UKOIL: grafik i kotirovki nefti marki Brent [Elektronnyy resurs]. — Rezhim dostupa: https://ru.tradingview.com/symbols/UKOIL/?timeframe=120M (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
9. TFU1! Grafiki i kotirovki [Elektronnyy resurs] // TradingView. — URL: https://ru.tradingview.com/symbols/ICEEUR-TFU1!/?timeframe=120M (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026)
10. Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). 2025 Monitoring Report. LNG Market Developments [Elektronnyy resurs] / Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators. – Ljubljana : ACER, 2025. – 66 p. – URL: https://www.acer.europa.eu/monitoring/MMR/LNG_market_developments_2025 (data obrascheniya: 01.05.2026).
