Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050

Natal'ya V. Lazareva; Viktor A. Fursov; Liliya V. Semenova

doi:10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011

UDC 330

RUSSIA'S FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FOURTH ENERGY TRANSITION: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND STRATEGIC PROSPECTS UNTIL 2050 Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050

АА Аа

Published in JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT · Issue Специальный выпуск №1,2025 · Pages 109–115 · Rubric: SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011

Received: 22.01.2026 Accepted: 01.02.2026 Published: 01.02.2026

Authors

Natal'ya V. Lazareva

Viktor A. Fursov

Liliya V. Semenova

Natal'ya V. Lazareva

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

North Caucasian Federal University professor · Stavropol

Viktor A. Fursov

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor ; professor

Technological Institute of Service (branch) of the Don State Technical University professor · Russian Federation · Rostov-on-Don

Liliya V. Semenova

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

Don State Technical University docent · Rostov-on-Don

ABSTRACT

The relevance of the research is due to global transformations in the energy sector related to the strengthening of the climate agenda, the development of renewable energy technologies and the acceleration of the fourth energy transition. Russia, which has significant reserves of fossil energy resources and a developed traditional energy sector, faces the need to balance between maintaining energy security and adapting to new international and environmental realities. The aim of the study is to determine the optimal structure of energy generation in Russia, taking into account economic, environmental and technological factors in the context of energy transition until 2050. The research uses methods of system analysis, comparative analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, cluster and multicriteria analysis, as well as forecasting based on energy balances and demographic indicators. The hypothesis of the study is that in the coming decades, renewable energy sources (RES) and nuclear power will become key components of the Russian energy system, complementing rather than completely replacing traditional sources such as gas and coal. The scientific novelty of the study consists in integrating up-to-date data on the structure of energy consumption and generation in the Russian Federation for 2021-2025, comparing the normalized cost of energy using modern methods and proposing a regionally differentiated model of energy development with an emphasis on the synergy between renewable energy sources and basic generation. The results of the study include: updated forecasts on the share of renewable energy sources, gas, coal and nuclear energy in the UES of Russia until 2050; identification of the economic competitiveness of solar and wind energy in certain regions; justification of the need to develop energy storage systems and smart grids. In conclusion, it is emphasized that a successful energy transition in Russia is impossible without government support, technological modernization and consideration of the geographical and climatic features of the country. Energy policy should be flexible, multi-level and focused on sustainable development.

KEYWORDS

fuel and energy complex, the fourth energy transition, renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, normalized energy cost, energy security, decarbonization, smart power grids

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Lazareva N. V., Fursov V. A., Semenova L. V. Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050 // JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT. 2026. no. Специальный выпуск №1,2025. pp. 109-115. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011. (Date of access 19.10.2026).

MLA

Natal'ya V. Lazareva, Fursov V. A., Semenova L. V.. "Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050." JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT.Специальный выпуск №1,2025 (2026): 109-115. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011.

APA

Lazareva N. V., Fursov V. A., Semenova L. V. (2026). Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050. JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT(Специальный выпуск №1,2025), 109-115. https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011

Chicago

Natal'ya V. Lazareva, Fursov V. A., Semenova L. V.. "Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050." JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT, no. Специальный выпуск №1,2025 (2026): 109-115. https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Lazareva N. V., Fursov V. A., Semenova L. V. | title = Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050 | journal = JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT | year = 2026 | issue = Специальный выпуск №1,2025 | pages = 109-115 | doi = 10.26118/2782-4586.2025.59.21.011 }}

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RUSSIA'S FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FOURTH ENERGY TRANSITION: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND STRATEGIC PROSPECTS UNTIL 2050 Russia's fuel and energy complex in the context of the fourth energy transition: challenges, opportunities and strategic prospects until 2050

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