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JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
Journals / JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT / Issue 8, 2026 / Transformation of digital Sovereignty and Valuation of National Ecosystems: integral Bayesian modeling of VC PJSC capitalization in the context of turbulence, regulatory transformation and structural shifts of the market (2026-2027)
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TRANSFORMATION OF DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY AND VALUATION OF NATIONAL ECOSYSTEMS: INTEGRAL BAYESIAN MODELING OF VC PJSC CAPITALIZATION IN THE CONTEXT OF TURBULENCE, REGULATORY TRANSFORMATION AND STRUCTURAL SHIFTS OF THE MARKET (2026-2027) Transformation of digital Sovereignty and Valuation of National Ecosystems: integral Bayesian modeling of VC PJSC capitalization in the context of turbulence, regulatory transformation and structural shifts of the market (2026-2027)

Published in JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT · Pages 18–37 · Rubric: SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586-2026-18-37 · EDN: TWJZRW
Received: 03.08.2026 Accepted: 31.08.2026 Published: 31.08.2026
Authors
MA
Marina A. Verzhakovskaya
ORCID SPIN
NA
Natal'ya V. Proskurina
AN
Andrey Korolev
ABSTRACT
The present study is a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the fundamental factors determining the market value of PJSC VK, followed by the construction of five multi-level econometric models to predict the dynamics of the company's capitalization for 2026-2027. The methodological basis of the work includes the identification of 21 key factors, structured according to macroeconomic, regulatory, operational and market characteristics, on the basis of which were developed: a multifactorial DCF model with correction for macroeconomic stress, an adjusted present value (APV) model taking into account the debt shield, a pricing model based on user value and regulatory options, a model of the evolution of debt burden and credit risk, as well as an integral Bayesian machine learning model, combining all previous approaches into a single ensemble. The key factors that have a decisive impact on the value of VK are the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the high debt burden, which constrain access to positive free cash flow, as well as the unique market situation resulting from geopolitical isolation and regulatory protectionism. The latter creates unprecedented opportunities for audience accumulation in national services, primarily in the MAX messenger and VK Video video platform, which forms a powerful speculative and potentially fundamental growth driver. At the same time, management's ability to convert the growth of the user base into real financial results through effective monetization, as well as the successful IPO of the fast-growing VK Tech segment, which can become a catalyst for the reassessment of the entire holding, is of critical importance. Integral modeling allows us to state with a high degree of reliability that in the baseline scenario, the fair value of VK shares for 2026 will consolidate in the range of 320-345 rubles, for 2027 a moderate increase to 360 rubles is expected with the potential to expand to 410 rubles when FCF enters a stable positive zone and the debt burden decreases to a target level below 2.5x. The optimistic scenario assumes movement into the corridor of 370-390 rubles (2026) and higher, subject to the successful IPO of VK Tech, the actual blocking of Telegram and the start of MAX monetization, while the pessimistic scenario tests the support level of 280-300 rubles. High volatility due to the speculative news background and sensitivity to regulatory initiatives will persist throughout the forecast period, however, VK's fundamental ability to build an effective monetization model for its entire ecosystem in conditions of technological isolation will remain the main determinant of the company's long-term fair value.
KEYWORDS
VK, machine learning, DCF modeling, real options, debt burden, MAX monetization, regulatory protectionism, scenario forecast, fair value
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1. World Bank Group. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/home (data obrascheniya: 18.02.2026).

2. Ivesting.com. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://ru.investing.com/ (data obrascheniya: 18.02.2026).

3. TrendEconomy. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/Italy/TOTAL (data obrascheniya: 18.02.2026).

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Kivarina Maria Valentinovna, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Digital Economics and Management of Yaroslav the Wise Novgo…
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