student from 01.01.2023 to 01.01.2025
St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
student from 01.01.2023 to 01.01.2025
St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
VAK Russia 2.3.1
VAK Russia 2.3.3
VAK Russia 2.9.8
UDC 33
The paper presents a methodology for short-term assessment of the risk of aircraft separation loss for short-term conflict prevention systems. The paper describes the rules for normalizing risk indicators and aggregating them into a single index with interpretation based on the levels of operational attention (warning/action). The paper also provides an algorithmic protocol for applying the methodology, which includes verification on archived tracks, the formation of reference index distributions, and the adaptation of thresholds to a specific sector (route or terminal). The paper discusses the limitations associated with the quality of observations and the linearity of short-term forecasts. The method is designed to unify STCA settings, reduce false alarms while maintaining the required sensitivity, and provide a reporting mechanism for short-term risks in air traffic control.
ATC, separation, short-term conflict warning algorithm, separation loss risk assessment, TCPA, DCPA, STCA, risk index, track covariance.
1. Plyasovskih A. P., Vinnikov K. I., Topilin V. V. Metodicheskaya ocenka opasnosti sblizheniya pri narushenii intervalov eshelonirovaniya // Crede Experto: transport, obschestvo, obrazovanie, yazyk. 2024. № 4(43). S. 59–70. — URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/metodika-avtomaticheskoy-otsenki-opasnosti-sblizheniya-vozdushnyh-sudov-pri-narushenii-intervalov-eshelonirovaniya/viewer (data obrascheniya: 25.10.2025).
2. Federal'nye pravila ispol'zovaniya vozdushnogo prostranstva Rossiyskoy Federacii : postanovlenie Pravitel'stva RF ot 11.03.2010 № 138 (v deystvuyuschey red.). — URL: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_98957/ (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
3. FAP-293. Organizaciya vozdushnogo dvizheniya v Rossiyskoy Federacii : prikaz Mintransa RF ot 25.11.2011 № 293 (v deystvuyuschey red.). — URL: https://favt.gov.ru/public/materials/f/6/3/f/a/f63fa58e790cf8642346e5a83018986a.pdf (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
4. EUROCONTROL. Specification for Short Term Conflict Alert (STCA). Edition 1.0. 2007. 56 p. — URL: https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-specifications-short-term-conflict-alert-stca (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
5. EUROCONTROL. Guidelines for Short Term Conflict Alert (STCA), EUROCONTROL-GUID-159, Parts I–III. Edition 1.0. 2017. — URL: https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2019-09/eurocontrol-guidelines-159-part-iii-1.0.pdf (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
6. Bestugin A. R., Filin A. D., Sannikov V. A. Avtomatizirovannye sistemy upravleniya vozdushnym dvizheniem: uchebnik dlya vuzov. M.: Yurayt, 2024. 94 s. — URL: https://urait.ru/book/avtomatizirovannye-sistemy-upravleniya-vozdushnym-dvizheniem-545080 (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
7. Shahtarin B. I. Fil'try Vinera i Kalmana: ucheb. posobie. M.: Goryachaya liniya — Telekom, 2016. 396 s. (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
8. ICAO. Safety Management Manual (SMM), Doc 9859. 4th ed. Montréal: ICAO, 2018. — URL: https://sassofia.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/icao-sms-4th-edition.pdf (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
9. ICAO. Procedures for Air Navigation Services — Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM), Doc 4444. 16th ed. Montréal: ICAO, 2016. — URL: https://aerostandart.rf/en/icao/book/doc-4444-procedures-for-air-navigation-services-air-traffic-management-ed-16-en-12507-2022-11-03 (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
10. Stepanov O. A. Metody obrabotki navigacionnoy informacii: ucheb. posobie. SPb: Universitet ITMO, 2017. 196 s. — URL: https://books.ifmo.ru/file/pdf/2217.pdf (data obrascheniya: 27.10.2025).
