student
Russian Federation
employee
The relevance of the study is driven by the growing threat of large-scale cyberattacks on critical infrastructure amid the digital transformation of the economy. The problem lies in the lack of comprehensive methodologies to assess not only direct but also systemic macroeconomic consequences of such incidents. The aim is to develop a model for the quantitative assessment of systemic risk based on a modified input-output model. The methodology accounts for cascade effects and indirect losses in interrelated industries due to disruptions in inter-industry linkages. The results of scenario modeling of an attack on the energy sector demonstrate that total losses for the national economy can far exceed direct damage, reaching 2.5% of GDP or more. The findings highlight the need for government authorities to consider systemic risks when developing cyber resilience strategies.
cyberattacks, critical infrastructure, economic modeling, systemic risk, macroeconomic consequences, input-output model
1. Central'nye banki i riski kiberbezopasnosti // ECONS.ONLINE. – 2022. – 19 oktyabrya. – URL: https://econs.online/articles/techno/tsentralnye-banki-i-riski-kiberbezopasnosti/
2. CODE RED 2026: Aktual'nye kiberugrozy dlya rossiyskih organizaciy // Positive Technologies. – 2025. – URL: https://ptsecurity.com/research/analytics/russia-cyberthreat-landscape-2026/
3. Poteri ot kiberprestupnosti // Tadviser. – 2025. – URL: https://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/Stat'ya:Poteri_ot_kiberprestupnosti
4. Counting the economic cost: How vulnerable could you be? // Lloyd's. – URL: https://www.lloyds.com/insights/futureset/futureset-insights/systemic-risk-scenarios/illuminating-cyber-crime/economic-impact
5. Ocenka i upravlenie riskami: kak rabotaet model' ugroz informacionnoy bezopasnosti // Infars. – URL: https://infars.ru/blog/otsenka-i-upravlenie-riskami-kak-rabotaet-model-ugroz-informatsionnoy-bezopasnosti/
6. Metody modelirovaniya atak // PT Research. – URL: https://ptresearch.media/articles/metody-modelirovaniya-atak
7. Rossiyskiy biznes provalil kiberispytaniya: 2,7% VVP pod ugrozoy // Komp'yuterra. – 2025. – URL: https://www.computerra.ru/320736/rossijskij-biznes-provalil-kiberispytaniya-2-7-vvp-pod-ugrozoj/
8. Systemic Cyber Risk and Aggregate Impacts // Risk Analysis. – 2022. – Vol. 42, Iss. 8. – P. 1606-1622. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13715.
9. Ocenka aktual'nyh ugroz IB // ESA PRO. – 2025. – 23 iyulya. – URL: https://esapro.ru/blog/otsenka-aktualnykh-ugroz-informatsionnoy-bezopasnosti/
10. RCVaR: An economic approach to estimate cyberattacks costs using data from industry reports // Computers & Security. – 2024. – Vol. 139. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cose.2024.103737.
