The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the Russian passenger car and light commercial vehicle market in 2025 and identifies key structural and cyclical factors that determine the current dynamics of the industry. It is noted that the automotive industry remains a crucial sector of the economy, providing significant employment and added value, and that 2025 marked a significant shift in the production and distribution model due to external shocks and the transformation of supply chains. An analysis of supply factors reveals an increase in localized production capacity and a reconfiguration of logistics, but there is a mismatch between the structure of the product range and current consumer capabilities and the price range. Demand factors include a significant decrease in the availability of loans, a decline in real disposable income, and an increase in consumer caution, which has led to a significant reduction in credit transactions and an increase in the share of self-financed purchases. Regulatory changes, such as an increase in the recycling fee, have further increased the entry threshold for mass-market models and have contributed to the closure of dealerships.
automotive market, production localization, availability of loans, recycling fee, consumer demand; market adaptation, structural adjustment, regional differentiation, government support
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