Economic and Market Prospects of Artificial Intelligence: An Analytical Review
Rubrics: SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES
Authors:
1.
Tver State Technical University
(Associate Professor)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
2.
Tver State Technical University
(docent)
employee
employee
Type:
Article
Pages:
from 234
to 238
Status:
Published
Received:
08.02.2026
Accepted:
12.02.2026
Published:
12.02.2026
Subject area:
UDC 004.9
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
artificial intelligence, macroeconomic forecast, labor productivity, stock market, investment strategy, technology cycle
Abstract:
This article analyzes the key points of the Vanguard research report "Economic and Market Outlook for 2026: AI Enthusiasm – Economic Boom, Stock Market Bust." It examines the macroeconomic implications of accelerated adoption and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) over the medium term. The focus is on AI's potential for productivity growth in the US and globally, the risks of overheating in the technology segment of the stock market, and the formation of an optimal investment strategy under these new conditions. Based on Vanguard's data analysis and modeling, the article substantiates the thesis of a divergence between AI's positive economic effect and the subdued long-term return expectations for US growth stocks. It concludes by advocating for a reallocation of portfolio investments towards high-quality bonds, US value stocks, and developed markets outside the US.
This article analyzes the key points of the Vanguard research report "Economic and Market Outlook for 2026: AI Enthusiasm – Economic Boom, Stock Market Bust." It examines the macroeconomic implications of accelerated adoption and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) over the medium term. The focus is on AI's potential for productivity growth in the US and globally, the risks of overheating in the technology segment of the stock market, and the formation of an optimal investment strategy under these new conditions. Based on Vanguard's data analysis and modeling, the article substantiates the thesis of a divergence between AI's positive economic effect and the subdued long-term return expectations for US growth stocks. It concludes by advocating for a reallocation of portfolio investments towards high-quality bonds, US value stocks, and developed markets outside the US.
Keywords:
artificial intelligence, macroeconomic forecast, labor productivity, stock market, investment strategy, technology cycle
artificial intelligence, macroeconomic forecast, labor productivity, stock market, investment strategy, technology cycle
1. AI exuberance: Economic upside, stock market downside – Rezhim dostupa: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/isg_vemo_2026.pdf (data obrascheniya 01.12.2025)
2. Oficial'nyy sayt investicionnoy kompanii Vanguard – Rezhim dostupa: https://corporate.vanguard.com/ (data obrascheniya 01.12.2025)
3. Davis, J.H. (2025). Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4. Autor, D., & Thompson, N. (2025). Expertise. National Bureau of Economic Research.
5. Greenspan, A. (2007). The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World. Penguin Press
