Russian Federation
employee
The relevance of the study is due to the unprecedented geopolitical and economic challenges faced by Russia after 2022: the introduction of large-scale sanctions, a partial transition to a mobilization model of the economy, the redistribution of budget priorities and the growth of inflationary risks. In these conditions, ensuring food security becomes not only a social, but also a strategic task of national importance. The purpose of the study is to analyze the dynamics of key macroeconomic and agro-industrial indicators in 2021-2024, assess the compliance of evidence with the objectives of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation and identify trends that threaten or contribute to the sustainability of the food system. The research used methods of system analysis, comparative analysis, statistical analysis, as well as methods of predictive estimation based on data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Research hypothesis: despite the intensification of mobilization processes and the redistribution of state resources in favor of the defense sector, Russia's food security in 2021-2024 has not only been preserved, but also strengthened in most key indicators, although structural vulnerabilities remain (in particular, in the segment of seeds and fruit and berry products). The scientific novelty of the study lies in updating the statistical base on food security for 2021-2024, including updated data on self-sufficiency, inflation, household incomes and the structure of budget expenditures, as well as in identifying contradictions between the growth of defense spending and the sustainability of the agro-industrial complex. The results of the study include: confirmation of exceeding the thresholds of the Food Security Doctrine in most categories; identification of a slowdown in food production in 2024; statement of the growth of real disposable incomes of the population and the inflation rate; as well as justification of the need for accelerated import substitution in the segment of seeds and agricultural machinery. In conclusion, it is emphasized that Russia's food security remains sustainable, but requires a more balanced approach to the allocation of budgetary resources and the active introduction of agricultural innovations, including dual-use technologies.
food security, self-sufficiency, agro-industrial complex, inflation, household incomes, Food security doctrine
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