Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
student
student
UDC 338.12
Background. Amidst the high volatility of commodity markets and the changing capital structure of Russian companies, the issue of reliably assessing their market value is becoming critical for investors and management. The objective of this study is to comprehensively assess the market value of one of Russia's largest vertically integrated oil companies (PAO Tatneft) using three classical approaches, identify discrepancies in the estimates, and provide practical recommendations. This study utilizes the discounted cash flow (DCF) method within the income approach, the peer company and industry ratio method within the comparative approach, and the net asset and liquidation value method within the cost approach. Additionally, a brand valuation, an analysis of the impact of ESG factors, and model stress testing were conducted. The fair value of one ordinary share of PAO Tatneft, obtained by harmonizing these approaches, is 650 rubles. The current market price (RUB 690) is close to a fundamentally sound level, indicating a fair market valuation of the company. A critical error in the terminal value calculation using the capitalization method was identified, highlighting the importance of correctly applying DCF models. The company demonstrates high operating efficiency (ROIC-WACC spread is +8.3 percentage points), low leverage, and a significant financial safety margin. Investors are recommended to adopt a "Hold" strategy, while management is advised to implement a value-based management (VBM) system based on the EVA metric.
business valuation, income approach, discounted cash flow (DCF) method, comparative approach, cost approach, net asset value method, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), terminal value, Gordon model, oil and gas sector, economic value added (EVA), sensitivity analysis, stress testing, ESG factors, value-based management (VBM), fair value of shares, stock market
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