From the Geo-economic frontier to the infrastructural reservation: the ontology of the Value Paradox in the assessment of PJSC Sovcomflot as a case of nonlinear capitalization of a sovereign logistics operator
Rubrics: SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES
Authors:
1.
Samara State University of Railway Transport
(Department of Digital Technologies, Associate Professor)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
2.
Samara National Research University named after Academician S. P. Korolev (Samara University)
student
Russian Federation
student
Russian Federation
Type:
Article
Pages:
from 102
to 118
Status:
Published
Received:
04.07.2026
Accepted:
30.07.2026
Published:
30.07.2026
Subject area:
UDC 330
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
Sovcomflot, maritime transportation, sanctions, geopolitical risk, logistical sovereignty, structural discount, adaptation model, investment assessment, price forecast, strategic importance, Northern Sea Route
Abstract:
This study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the strategic transformation and prospects for the market value of Sovcomflot, the largest Russian shipping company, in the context of a fundamental restructuring of global hydrocarbon logistics after 2022. The paper identifies and comprehensively substantiates a paradigmatic shift in the nature of the company: from a commercial market operator, it has become a critically important element of the infrastructure of national economic sovereignty. This transition has fundamentally changed the mechanism of its value formation, making it dependent on political and strategic factors to a greater extent than on traditional industry indicators. The central focus is on the key contradiction between the high fundamental asset value of a company based on its unique competencies and the chronic deep discount imposed by the market due to unpredictable external risks. The methodological basis of the work is the construction of an original multicomponent analytical model that integrates quantitative and qualitative factors. The model allows you to aggregate and evaluate the cumulative impact of geopolitical pressures, operational constraints, fleet conditions, financial stability, and strategic government support. It has been proven that the market price of shares has ceased to be a function of profit or freight rates, becoming a kind of "survival premium" reflecting the company's ability to adapt to extreme conditions. The study reveals a model of "managed adaptation" in which unprecedented external pressures are offset by the creation of parallel logistics schemes, reorientation to new markets, and reliance on internal resources and government institutions. In the final part, based on the scenario approach and the application of the developed model, the most likely range of the market price of Sovcomflot shares for 2026 is determined. The forecast obtained in the range from 52 to 68 rubles demonstrates the delicate balance in which the company finds itself: on the one hand, risk pressure constantly reduces its fundamental assessment, on the other hand, its strategic role as a national logistics operator serves as a powerful stabilizing buffer. The conclusions of the work are of particular importance for understanding a new type of investment risks, when the key driver of value is not economic efficiency, but the dynamics of the geopolitical situation and the success of public infrastructure projects such as the Northern Sea Route.
This study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the strategic transformation and prospects for the market value of Sovcomflot, the largest Russian shipping company, in the context of a fundamental restructuring of global hydrocarbon logistics after 2022. The paper identifies and comprehensively substantiates a paradigmatic shift in the nature of the company: from a commercial market operator, it has become a critically important element of the infrastructure of national economic sovereignty. This transition has fundamentally changed the mechanism of its value formation, making it dependent on political and strategic factors to a greater extent than on traditional industry indicators. The central focus is on the key contradiction between the high fundamental asset value of a company based on its unique competencies and the chronic deep discount imposed by the market due to unpredictable external risks. The methodological basis of the work is the construction of an original multicomponent analytical model that integrates quantitative and qualitative factors. The model allows you to aggregate and evaluate the cumulative impact of geopolitical pressures, operational constraints, fleet conditions, financial stability, and strategic government support. It has been proven that the market price of shares has ceased to be a function of profit or freight rates, becoming a kind of "survival premium" reflecting the company's ability to adapt to extreme conditions. The study reveals a model of "managed adaptation" in which unprecedented external pressures are offset by the creation of parallel logistics schemes, reorientation to new markets, and reliance on internal resources and government institutions. In the final part, based on the scenario approach and the application of the developed model, the most likely range of the market price of Sovcomflot shares for 2026 is determined. The forecast obtained in the range from 52 to 68 rubles demonstrates the delicate balance in which the company finds itself: on the one hand, risk pressure constantly reduces its fundamental assessment, on the other hand, its strategic role as a national logistics operator serves as a powerful stabilizing buffer. The conclusions of the work are of particular importance for understanding a new type of investment risks, when the key driver of value is not economic efficiency, but the dynamics of the geopolitical situation and the success of public infrastructure projects such as the Northern Sea Route.
Keywords:
Sovcomflot, maritime transportation, sanctions, geopolitical risk, logistical sovereignty, structural discount, adaptation model, investment assessment, price forecast, strategic importance, Northern Sea Route
Sovcomflot, maritime transportation, sanctions, geopolitical risk, logistical sovereignty, structural discount, adaptation model, investment assessment, price forecast, strategic importance, Northern Sea Route
1. World Bank Group. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/home (data obrascheniya: 21.01.2026).
2. Ivesting.com. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://ru.investing.com/ (data obrascheniya: 21.01.2026).
3. TrendEconomy. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/Italy/TOTAL (data obrascheniya: 21.01.2026).
4. Stefanova, N. A. Metodika rascheta innovacionnogo makroekonomicheskogo pokazatelya / N. A. Stefanova, A. A. Korolev // Zhurnal monetarnoy ekonomiki i menedzhmenta. – 2025. – № 4. – S. 375-382. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.26118/2782-4586.2025.91.47.053. – EDN UOZWVE.
