The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as a challenge for Russia’s export-oriented industries: a case study of the metallurgical complex in the URAL federal district
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The article assesses the implications of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for export-oriented metallurgical enterprises located in the Ural Federal District (UFD) of Russia. The primary focus is placed on the analysis of direct financial burdens and fiscal consequences for the national and regional budgets arising from the implementation of cross-border carbon regulation. The empirical basis includes annual and non-financial reports of key metallurgical companies, official statistics from federal authorities, and legal provisions of Regulation (EU) 2023/956. An economic and mathematical model is developed to quantify the CBAM-related payments for major producers—Public Joint Stock Company EVRAZ, Public Joint Stock Company Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, and Public Joint Stock Company Pipe Metallurgical Company—for the period from 2026 to 2034. The results show that cumulative carbon payments may reach up to €372.77 million, with the largest burden falling on enterprises engaged in primary steelmaking due to high levels of carbon intensity. A scenario-based estimate of tax shortfalls reveals a projected decline in budget revenues of RUB 2.97 billion by 2034, with over 70% of the loss impacting regional budgets of the Ural Federal District. The study highlights the urgent need to develop a national carbon pricing and reporting system to mitigate the risks associated with CBAM. Policy recommendations include introducing sector-specific carbon taxes, launching pilot emissions trading schemes, and creating industrial clusters focused on low-carbon technologies. The analysis concludes that, despite short-term economic pressure, CBAM may act as a long-term driver for industrial modernization and the transition toward sustainable production practices.

Keywords:
carbon regulation, CBAM, cross-border carbon tax, metallurgy, Ural Federal District, carbon intensity, export, fiscal impact, decarbonisation, climate policy
Text
Text (PDF): Read Download
References

1. Aylor B., Zhil'ber M., Kosach A., Lang N., Makadu M., Oberg Y., Perapechka S., Piper K., Polunin K., Sudmeyer B., Foygt N. Kak pogranichnyy uglerodnyy sbor ES mozhet povliyat' na mirovuyu torgovlyu. – BCG (The Boston Consulting Group), 2020. – 18 s. (data obrascheniya: 23.03.2025)

2. Votinov A.I., Lazaryan S.S., Radionov S.A., Sudakov S.S. Ocenka posledstviy primeneniya mehanizma transgranichnogo uglerodnogo regulirovaniya Evrosoyuza dlya Rossii. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VShE. 2021; 25(3): 452–477.

3. Vsemirnaya stal'naya associaciya. World Steel in Figures 2024 [Elektronnyy resurs]. – Bryussel': World Steel Association, 2024. – Rezhim dostupa: https://worldsteel.org/data/world-steel-in-figures/world-steel-in-figures-2024/, svobodnyy. – (data obrascheniya: 31.03.2025).

4. Godovoy otchet Gruppy EVRAZ za 2018 god / EVRAZ plc. – London: EVRAZ plc, 2019. – 268 s.

5. Godovoy otchet Gruppy EVRAZ za 2021 god / EVRAZ plc. – London: EVRAZ plc, 2022. – 304 s.

6. Godovoy otchet PAO «TMK» za 2020 god / Publichnoe akcionernoe obschestvo «Trubnaya Metallurgicheskaya Kompaniya». – Moskva: PAO «TMK», 2021. – 220 s.

7. Evropeyskiy parlament. Mehanizm korrektirovki uglerodnyh granic v ramkah Evropeyskogo zelenogo kursa [Elektronnyy resurs] // Evropeyskiy parlament. — URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-european-green-deal/file-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism (data obrascheniya: 04.04.2025)

8. Kak sankcii Evrosoyuza skazhutsya na rossiyskoy metallurgii // Rossiyskaya gazeta. 29.03.2022 [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://rg.ru/2022/03/29/kak-sankcii-evrosoiuza-skazhutsia-na-rossijskoj-metallurgii.html (data obrascheniya: 28.03.2025).

9. Organizaciya ekonomicheskogo sotrudnichestva i razvitiya. Effektivnye stavki na vybrosy ugleroda: klyuchevye vyvody dlya Kazahstana [Elektronnyy resurs] // OECD, 2023. URL: https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/effective-carbon-rates-kazakhstan.pdf (data obrascheniya: 06.04.2025)

10. Otchet ob ustoychivom razvitii Gruppy MMK za 2022 god / PAO «Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat». – Magnitogorsk: PAO «MMK», 2023. – 147 s.

11. Publichnoe akcionernoe obschestvo «Trubnaya Metallurgicheskaya Kompaniya» (PAO «TMK»). Godovoy otchet 2023 goda [Elektronnyy resurs] / PAO «TMK». — Moskva, 2024. — 364 s. — URL: https://www.tmk-group.ru/media_ru/files/94/TMK_AR_2023_RUS.pdf (data obrascheniya: 01.04.2025)

12. Regiony Rossii. Social'no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2017: stat. sb. / Rosstat. – M.: Federal'naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, 2017. – 1402 s. – ISBN 978-5-89476-442-9.

13. Federal'naya tamozhennaya sluzhba. Dannye ob eksporte-importe Rossii za yanvar' 2022 goda [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://customs.gov.ru/press/federal/document/329649 (data obrascheniya: 29.03.2025).

14. Centr po effektivnomu ispol'zovaniyu energii. Mehanizm transgranichnoy uglerodnoy korrektirovki ES (CBAM): analiz vozdeystviya na Rossiyu i rossiyskie kompanii [Elektronnyy resurs]. — M.: CENEF – XXI, 2023. — URL: https://cenef-xxi.ru/uploads/Cz_ENEF_XXI_CBAM_4c0a2fb4a3.pdf (data obrascheniya: 06.04.2025)

15. BloombergNEF. EU ETS Market Outlook 1H 2024: Prices Valley Before Rally [Elektronnyy resurs] // BloombergNEF. — URL: https://about.bnef.com/blog/eu-ets-market-outlook-1h-2024-prices-valley-before-rally (data obrascheniya: 01.04.2025)

16. Branger F., Quirion P. Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies // Ecological Economics. – 2014. – Vol. 99. – P. 29–39.

17. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism // European Commission. URL: https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en (data obrascheniya: 15.03.2025)

18. Mehling M. A., van Asselt H., Das K., Droege S., Verkuijl C. Designing Border Carbon Adjustments for Enhanced Climate Action // American Journal of International Law. – 2019. – Vol. 113, No. 3. – P. 433–481.

19. Regulation (EU) 2023/956 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 10 May 2023. — URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/956/oj/eng (data obrascheniya: 20.03.2025)

20. Ville F. et al. The impact of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism on third-country exports: a gravity model analysis // International Economics. – 2022. – Vol. 170. – P. 35–47.

Login or Create
* Forgot password?