Lomonosov Moscow State University
UDC 336.74
UDC 005
In the context of global market instability, managing the liquidity of real estate portfolios becomes critical for maintaining resilience and preventing cascading financial risks. The aim of the study is to systematize modern liquidity management methods and adapt them to conditions of volatility. The empirical base comprises data on 250 diversified portfolios with an aggregate value exceeding USD 50 billion, covering the period 2020–2025. The methodology included correlation–regression analysis, scenario modeling and comparative analysis of strategies, as well as stress testing. The analysis showed that liquidity is a dynamic parameter dependent on asset structure, leverage level, and macroeconomic factors. The most vulnerable segments were retail and office properties in Classes B/C, exhibiting marketing periods exceeding 350 days and sale discounts of up to 24%. In contrast, logistics real estate demonstrated high resilience due to low vacancy and growing demand from e-commerce. Stress modeling revealed an exponential increase in risk at loan-to-value (LTV) above 70%, accompanied by a probability of forced sale of up to 45% and discounts exceeding 39%. The comparative analysis of strategies showed that securitization and sale-and-leaseback transactions can significantly enhance liquidity but are associated with value losses and high transaction costs. The most effective preventive measures were identified as diversification and maintaining a conservative debt policy. The final scenario analysis confirmed that a diversified portfolio with LTV no higher than 50% is twice as resilient under crisis conditions as a single-segment, highly leveraged portfolio. The results underscore the need to shift from a buy-and-hold strategy to a multi-level liquidity management system that includes strategic, tactical, and operational measures. The practical significance of the study lies in developing recommendations for investors and managers on forming balanced portfolios and implementing dynamic liquidity monitoring.
liquidity, real estate portfolio, volatile markets, diversification, leverage
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